Looking at the March 10-year today, we have a high 127-24, a low of 126-30, and currently trading at 127-01. Certainly, the highlight news of the week was this morning’s non-farm payroll number that smashed expectations with a rise of 467K way more than the expected rise of 150K.  But that really doesn’t tell the whole story, all week most economists had been predicting a negative print, some as low as negative 200K. On Wednesday, ADP came out negative, so most were expecting the same for today’s NFP number. Looking deeper into the number, you will notice the key, hourly earnings shot up to 5.7% blowing away expectations of a rise of 5.2% which is what the fed is looking at closely in determining if and when they will raise rates. It would not be inconceivable if the Fed comes in and does a live hike at some point today, I am certainly not saying it is going to happen. But, the price of oil is now above 90$ for the first time in seven years and even though AMZN had great earnings yesterday they came out after the bell and said they are raising the price of their exclusive “prime”, arguably the most popular expense for most people. you can bet the fed is under great pressure to raise rates immediately to put a lid on prices of goods and services.

10yr Note Mar ’22 Daily Chart
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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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