The last couple weeks have seen an FOMC rate decision shift, unemployment, a tariff increase tweet and much, much more. The crude oil contract and others have seen significant moves and corresponding chart damage which could have further implications. As noted previously, producer quotas mark a market operating at oversupply and these changes to demand do not help, certainly factored into the price action.

Also, yesterday saw extremes and a bounce from the lows in oil, although the recovery today is on lighter volume, and the market has recovered from this level early June. Should the market fail to recover this time, a run to December levels could be possible.

Looking to the chart below, the trendline from the December and June lows was traded through yesterday and it does not seem, as of this writing, that it will be trading close to that point today. There may be some encouragement from the RSI near 30 and the recovery from yesterday’s low, although outside markets and some fundamental factors point otherwise.