Softs

December Coffee Correcting After Rally

Posted 11/07/2018 9:07AM CTAdam Tuiaana

After such a major rally over the past month, it would appear natural for the market to meet resistance, and ultimately correcting as it should. A large supply still awaits next season and we’ve also seen some weakness in the Brazilian currency, but strength in the equities market may help coffee prices hold support at these levels.

Technically, it appears that December coffee prices may be forming a bullish pennant continuation pattern to the upside. A break at the apex of the pattern (approx. 116 level) may push coffee prices quickly above the 200-day MA, for a run back to the 125 level. This pattern will likely continue to formulate over through the balance of November, with the apex of the pattern plotted to be reached in the beginning of December. Likewise, a break down at the apex could send coffee prices back down to the 110 level in a massive hurry.

Coffee Dec ’18 Daily Chart

Coffee Dec '18 Daily Chart

Adam Tuiaana

Adam grew up in Chicago and was always fascinated by the fast-paced action found in the futures market hub there. He began participating in the financial markets by trading stocks in 1997 and began his career as a trading consultant with RJO Futures in March of 2009. At RJO, he specializes in risk management and disciplined trading plans, and is focused on educating clients with one-on-one consulting and training. Adam believes the best approach to trading is to take a measured and objective approach and let the markets guide your decisions.