December gold has seen quite the price action over the past few months. With a low of around 1211 in July and a more recent high of around 1363 in early September, there appears to be some fresh support in wake of once again more North Korea threats. Kim Jung Un has now threatened to test an above ground hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean, a move that if taken could trigger a much more severe response from the US and the world. The latest UN Security Council meeting has produced mixed reactions as President Trump has made threats that any more provocations could result in North Korea’s complete destruction. The most recent selloff has been triggered by an FOMC meeting which resulted in a much more hawkish tone than what was expected. The fed has begun to wind down its balance sheet, as well as an almost assurance that the fed will in fact be raising interest rates in December. Gold promptly sold off on this news, with a telltale sign that occurred just days before as the trend up from July was broken and follow through on FOMC decision day.

Gold, from a technical standpoint, should be finding much needed support at 1287 as this correlates to the 50% retracement level. If this level does not hold expect a move toward the 62% retracement level of 1269. The MACD has also crossed indicating a sell just a few days ago. Until support is found, be cautious to consider gold a buy. There needs to be clear support found, and we might have found it if North Korea does continue the confrontation.  


Dec ’17 Gold Daily Chart

Dec '17 Gold Daily Chart

Joshua Graves

Josh began his career in May of 2013 after graduating from Purdue University, West Lafayette. He received a degree in Agricultural Economics, with a Certificate in Entrepreneurship. He started at Paragon Investments in Kansas, the heart of wheat country. While working there he developed long term relationships with corn, soybean, and wheat producers, speaking with them on a weekly basis. His goal was to market their physical production more effectively through tracking basis, as well as hedge their exposure in the grain and cattle markets through a variety of futures and option strategies. He then moved to Florida to work for PFL Petroleum, a physical biofuels brokerage, and gained significant exposure to OTC and physical energy markets. Trading has been a passion from day one of his career. In his free time he stays active in downtown Chicago, attends sporting events, and holds an FAA Private Pilot’s License and flies Cirrus and Cessna aircraft regularly.