Looking at the September 10-year note, we have had a wild ride in the last week with a new high for the move coming yesterday at 135-07 and yields touching a new low for the move at 1.12. Currently, the note is trading down 25 ticks at 134-01 and yields rising to 1.29 as of this writing. The big move in volatility is due to the market thinking that the new delta variant is going to hurt the U.S.  economy, but more importantly, slow down the world economy. We are not only seeing major upticks in Europe, but the U.S. as well. When the pandemic started in 2020, the U.S. was behind Europe in spreading of the virus by about 2-3 weeks. Now the key going forward, does the world economy go on another lock down or do we continue to re-open and have another mask mandate? My overall feeling is that the world economy will continue to re-open but will remain vigilant. Treasuries have been the major beneficiary of recent stock weakness but as we all saw yesterday, stocks roared back and are having another strong day to the upside. The last two days feel like we had a major short squeeze in notes and have come down in price very quickly. The market feels to me, that as bad as this variant might be along with its ease of transmission, I think it is just another temporary setback in another wise very explosive economy.

10-Year Note Sep ’21 Daily Chart
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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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