JUN & JUL CRUDE OIL
This week’s continued recovery above Thur/Fri highs reinforces smaller-degree strength discussed in 30-Apr’s Technical Blog that warned of a possible base/reversal count. This strength leaves corrective lows of various degrees at 18.10, 10.07 and certainly 21-Apr’s 6.50 low that the market is now required to relapse below to defer, threaten and then negate a developing constructive count and possibly a major reversal higher. With today’s gains above 18-Mar’s 21.64 low, former support-turned-resistance and our long-term risk parameter, all previously recommended bearish exposure for even long-term traders is nullified. Traders are further advised to consider a cautious bullish policy with weakness below one of the risk parameters specified above and commensurate with one’s personal risk profile required to take defensive steps.
In the Jul contract, yesterday’s break above 23-Apr’s 23.40 corrective high confirms a bullish divergence in daily momentum that leaves 28-Apr’s 17.27 low in its wake as one of developing importance, the end of at least the downtrend from 09-Apr’s 35.18 high and our new short-term risk parameter from which non-bearish decisions like short-covers and cautious bullish punts can now be objectively based and managed.
JUN HEATING OIL
Thur’s recovery above 23-Apr’s 0.8632 high and our short-term risk parameter discussed in Thur morning’s Technical Blog confirms the bullish divergence in short-term mo that defines 28-Apr’s 0.6724 low as the end of at least a 5-wave sequence down from 03-Apr’s 1.1104 larger-degree corrective high and possibly the end of a major sequence down from 03-Jan’s 2.1056 high. Today’s recovery to test last week’s high is consistent with a developing base/correction/reversal count that warns of further and possibly surprising gains in the period ahead. Last week’s 0.6724 low serves as our new short-term but key risk parameter from which non-bearish decisions like short-covers and cautious bullish punts can now be objectively based and managed. Commensurately larger-degree strength above the general 0.93-handle-area support-turned-resistance will be this base/reversal-threat’s next reinforcing stepping stone and raise the of a major correction or reversal of Jan-Apr’s entire 2.1056 – 0.6724 meltdown.
Today’s clear break above 14-Apr’s 0.8215 high confirms our base/correction/reversal count introduced in 23-Apr’s Technical Blog and leaves smaller- and larger-degree corrective lows in its wake at 0.7408 and 0.6519, respectively, that now serve as our new short- and longer-term risk parameters from which a new bullish policy and exposure can be objectively based and managed. In lieu of weakness below these levels, further and possibly protracted gains should not surprise in the period ahead, especially in light of historically bearish sentiment levels.
JUN NAT GAS
Today’s impulsive recovery above 22-Apr’s 2.077 high and our short-term risk parameter left in the wake of 24-Apr’s bearish divergence in short-term momentum negates our specific bearish count and resurrects a base/reversal count that could be major in scope. Smaller- and larger-degree corrective lows at 1.872 and 1.765 left in the wake of today’s rally serve as our new short- and longer-term risk parameters from which a resurrected bullish policy and exposure can be objectively based and managed.