The E-mini S&P closed at 2647.25 on Monday to start the week down 24.25. With the market back below the 21-day moving average, combined with RSI trending lower, trading down through support today should accelerate the short-term trend to the downside. Support comes in around 2630.00 and 2594.50 with resistance at 2674.75 and 2714.25. Bulls are looking for a close above 2659.50 to reverse the trend to the upside and test resistance levels.  Markets are weakened on increased tension caused by Israel charging that Iran violated an agreement by having a nuclear weapons program, which could cause the US to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal. We also see a softening of US trade stance with key allies as metal tariffs from the Trump administration were delayed on Canada, Mexico, and the EU. Despite those positives, the market has started lower again today, possibly factoring in expectations of soft iPhone sales from Apple who reports after the close. Looking ahead to tomorrow, there is a FOMC meeting scheduled with a consensus of no change in rates and a feeling that first quarter weakness will be understated with a continued outlook on growth. Look for the market to continue lower down to support with choppy trade as it tries to form a push to the upside.

E-mini S&P 500 Jun ’18 Daily Chart

E-mini S&P 500 Jun '18 Daily Chart

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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist

Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.

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