Yesterday’s clear, impulsive relapse below 19-Jan’s 98.19 low and our short-term risk parameter left in the wake of Mon’s bullish divergence in short-term momentum above 13-Jan’s 98.43 high nullifies that divergence, chalks up the recent pop as a corrective event and reinstates the secular bear trend that we believe could be generational in scope.  As a result of this renewed weakness, the 240-min chart above and daily chart below show that the market has identified Mon’s 98.45 high as the latest smaller-degree corrective high and thus the minimum level this market needs to recoup to even defer, let alone threaten the bear.  Per such, 98.45 becomes our new short-term risk parameter from which traders can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a resumed bullish policy and exposure.

On a longer-term basis, the weekly chart below shows the sheer magnitude of the 17-MONTH decline from Aug’20’s 99.79 high that we believe is just the start of a massive, perhaps generational reversal of a trend higher in rate contracts that has been in place since the early-’80s.  Given what we believe is still a major 3rd-Wave down from Jun’21’s 99.51 high as labeled below, commensurately larger-degree strength above at least 31-Dec’s 98.64 larger-degree corrective high remains required to arrest the current 3rd-Wave stage of the bear and expose a larger-degree corrective recovery.  In this regard, that 98.64 level remains intact as our key long-term risk parameter.

These issues considered, a full and aggressive bearish policy and exposure remain advised for longer-term institutional players with a recovery above 98.64 required to defer or threaten this call enough to warrant defensive measures.  Shorter-term traders whipsawed out of bearish exposure following Mon’s bullish divergence in short-term mo are advised to resume a bearish tack from current 98.18-area levels OB with a recovery above 98.45 required to negate this specific call and warrant its cover.  In lieu of such 98.45+ strength, the trend is down on all scales with indeterminable and potentially extreme downside potential ahead.

RJO Market Insights

RJO Market Insights specializes in forward-thinking analysis, focused on potential market-moving events and dominant factors driving price discovery. Detailed fundamental and technical coverage across multiple commodity sectors is combined with objectively-constructed trade recommendations to provide an industry-leading product for R.J. O’Brien’s Institutional clients, commercial hedgers, introducing brokers and individual investors free of charge. Content is distributed in both text and audio formats, with specialized service offerings provided by account type.
For more information on RJO Market Insights, contact your broker or RJO representative.