While this month’s recovery from 01-Aug’s 97.035 is not unimpressive in and of itself and looks to be an arguably impulsive, 5-wave affair as labeled in the 240-min chart below, this rally has certainly labored over the past week-and-a-half. Indeed, the developing potential for a bearish divergence in short-term momentum is clear and will be considered confirmed on admittedly very short-term weakness below former 97.15-area resistance-turned-support and Tue’s minor corrective low. The prospect for a “double-top” at 97.18 is also clear.
On a broader daily basis above, the potential for a bearish divergence in momentum is also clear, but commensurately larger-degree proof of weakness below 15-Aug’s 97.105 corrective low and short-term risk parameter is required to confirm this divergence, break the uptrend from 97.035 and expose either a steeper correction of this month’s pop or a resumption of the secular bear trend shown in the weekly close-only chart below. The fact that this market has struggled mightily to only retrace near a Fibonacci minimum 38.2% of May-Jun’s or May-Aug’s decline from 97.43 to the 97.04-area would seem to underscore this market’s overall weakness (still).
These issues considered, a bearish policy remains advised for long-term players with either a weekly close above 97.22 and/or an intra-day recovery above 97.43 required to threaten a bearish policy sufficiently to warrant its cover. Shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles are advised to return to a bearish policy and exposure on a failure below 97.145 with a recovery above 97.18 required to negate this call and warranty its cover.