The EURUSD and the markets priced in those currencies have been subject to a number of developments in the recent weeks and those upcoming. For the Euro, Catalonian independence from Spain has provided uncertainty in the region which has yet to be resolved and warrants attention, especially combined with the Eurozone QE tapering planned and this morning’s PMI flashes. For the USD, the announcement of a new Federal Reserve chief is said to be on the horizon prior to President Trump’s trip to Asia at the end of next week. Markets are eager to see the appointment as the hawkish/dovish leaning of the next Fed chief will have implications to the carry trade and interest rate products along the yield curve, although FOMC minutes and dot plots forecast rate hikes at the end of this year and next year.
Technically, it is interesting to note the (roughly) 1.19 and 1.1775 levels as the 1.19 level has acted as a key technical level over the past few months and could be seen as the top sloppy double top. With trade on Tuesday at the 1.1798 level, closes below yesterday’s low of 1.17595 could see follow through to the lows of October 2 and October 6. On the other side of trade, while not as fundamentally backed, it is interesting to note potential mean reversion and continuing range bound price action which could lead to a double bottom with closes above the 19.20 level.
Dec ’17 Euro FX 240 min Chart