It’s been a volatile week in the wheat market with a 60-cent range and a new concern about supply. Ukraine is the world’s fifth largest wheat exporter and has planned to set limits for grain exports for the 2018-2019 season. This sent prices sharply higher and close to retesting last year’s high. Back in 2010-2011 we saw Russia (the world’s largest exporter) pull a similar move and institute restrictions on wheat exports causing another sharp move higher. Technically wheat futures have been in a strong uptrend since hitting contract lows last month but didn’t give a clear upward signal until the July 25 breakout. Caution should be taken – buy the bulls if we see a break below 545.
Wheat Dec ’18 Daily Chart