It’s been a volatile week in the wheat market with a 60-cent range and a new concern about supply. Ukraine is the world’s fifth largest wheat exporter and has planned to set limits for grain exports for the 2018-2019 season. This sent prices sharply higher and close to retesting last year’s high. Back in 2010-2011 we saw Russia (the world’s largest exporter) pull a similar move and institute restrictions on wheat exports causing another sharp move higher.  Technically wheat futures have been in a strong uptrend since hitting contract lows last month but didn’t give a clear upward signal until the July 25 breakout. Caution should be taken – buy the bulls if we see a break below 545.

Wheat Dec ’18 Daily Chart

Wheat Dec '18 Daily Chart

Phillip Streible

Early in his career Phillip began trading his own account as a screen trader focusing on the metals, grains and stock indices. He then became a Series 7 licensed financial consultant with A.G. Edwards. Later, he expanded his trading experience into a Series 3 licensed commodity broker with Investment Analysis Group. Most recently he was a senior market strategist at MF Global before joining RJO Futures in October 2011 as a senior commodities broker. As a senior commodities broker his goal is to show clients how to anticipate, recognize and react to bull and bear market conditions through the use of technical analysis techniques that help them to define risk.