Softs

Extreme Cotton Technicals

Posted 08/14/2019 11:09AM CTEric Scoles

December ’19 cotton futures prices are stair stepping their way down on the charts as most fundamentals in the supply/demand dynamic are still strongly bearish. Ending stocks for 2019/20 were adjusted, now at a 12-year high, and currently weak demand are weighing heavily down on prices. While from a fundamental standpoint, cotton futures still have plenty of reason to be bearish and prices can always go lower, the fact that managed money and traders are so heavily net short that it wouldn’t take much in the way of tangible shift in the supply/demand dynamic to see large short covering action and a price rally. Currently crop conditions are in decline with hot dry weather in Texas and US/China trade tensions might be easing slightly. As stated in my previous article on cotton: Keep a close eye on this market. If production issues become more threatening or headlines on trade talks take a strong positive tone, this could be a great opportunity for patient, well-times bulls.

Cotton Dec ’19 Daily Chart

Eric Scoles

Eric entered the workforce during the summer of 2007 as an apprentice tradesman just before the big crash and recession which followed. The impact of which strongly inspired his interest in the financial industry and began him as a student of the markets. Eric worked throughout the following years developing strong communication skills and risk management practices in the aviation and marketing industries before ultimately getting licensed and turning his passion into a career as a market strategist with RJO Futures.