Looking at the September 10-year note, we have had a narrow range today with a high of 123-15 and a low of 123-06. The market has been somewhat supported today with data showing mixed news. We saw market manufacturing a bit stronger than expected, but new home sales month on month were weaker than expected. Yesterday, Chairman Powell, testified before congress and basically reiterated what he has been saying all along that he sees inflation being transitory and any jump that we have seen in the last month has been caused by the economy reopening. I am not sure he is correct in his assumption as one just needs to visit your local grocery store or gas station and see prices are up substantially. The big test will come on Friday when the PCE comes out at 7:30 central. Rumors are it will come out very strong and if it does, traders should watch out below because the Fed could say that they will soon begin to taper, meaning they will cut back on their bond buying which is a precursor for the possibility of raising rates sooner rather than later.

10-Year Note Sep ’21 Daily Chart
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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist

Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.

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