Today’s break below 05-Apr’s 93.45 low reaffirms the developing slide and reinforces our peak/reversal count introduced in 29-Mar’s Technical Webcast. This resumed weakness leaves Tue’s 94.21 high in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective high and new short-term risk parameter from which a bearish policy can be objectively rebased and managed.
The broader peak/reversal factors remain intact, including:
- • an arguably complete 5-wave Elliott sequence up from 06Nov17’s 87.30 low as labeled in the daily chart above
- • the market’s rejection of the upper-quarter of the past couple years’ range
- • the Fibonacci fact that the rally from Nov’s 87.30 low spanned a virtually identical length (i.e. 1.000 progression) to Dec’16 – Sep’17’s preceding 84.27 – 93.21 rally on a weekly log scale basis below
- • the return to relatively historically frothy sentiment levels that warned of and accompanied both of this market’s previous major highs and reversals.
HOWEVER, the weekly chart below also shows this market engaging the pivotal 92.71-to-93.21-area that caped this market as resistance from Apr’17 until Feb’s breakout above it, leaving it as a considerable new support candidate. IF the current relapse is just a correction within a broader bullish count, we’d expect this general 93.00-area to hold as support. A clear break below it would leave this market vulnerable to sharp, even relentless losses to the lower-quarter of the long-term range.
These issues considered, a bearish policy and exposure remain advised with minimum strength above 94.21 required to pare or neutralize positions. In lieu of such strength we anticipate further and possibly protracted losses straight away.