A slowdown in yesterday’s macro data in the Manufacturing PMI to 59.5 from 60.6 m/m, some further supportive evidence of stagnant to slowing GDP growth from here. US Small Caps lead the charge on the downside, happy to say of course. We’ll call this a core short position from here, or until further notice of course. Oil prices reversed -3% yesterday to the bad, I’m hunting for a long side entry here for a trade. I expect plenty of chop in August, and quite frankly I think we’re pretty good at trading choppy markets. Keep the allocations tight, grossing up at the extremes of the ranges provided.
Copper looks interesting here – giving me plenty to consider with a bullish economic backdrop for commodities, bullish trend, Nearing the low end of the range AND immediate-term OS reading of 9. Stay tuned, something may be coming your way in copper.
Oil- also interesting here – we may want to get past the inventory data on Wednesday, but then again that data could provide a catalyst for another pop higher. I’d like to see a lower OS reading to be honest, but nothing is perfect in a non-linear game like this. I’ll be a little patient here.
IVOLs are very telling here. Huge Premiums in tech and Nasdaq should keep you in the hunt for long side entry points. Conversely, the Russell 2000 (Small Caps) are showing much lower premiums (and actually a small discount of -1% on Friday), should keep you hunting for short side entries – we are carrying a small core short position in Russell 2000.
Unrelated, but an inspiring story that I thought I’d shine a light on…
The year was 1952, America was less than a decade removed from WW2, and there was a story unfolding in Small Town, USA…..
I stumbled across this unknown gem while I was driving back from a brief family getaway in Lake Geneva, WI. Then I completely forgot about it, but then it resurfaced while I was having a chat with my father last night on the phone. And this may bore some of you, and that’s alright, feel free to skip over to the TRM table below. But those that know me, know I’m a sucker for “David vs Goliath”, faith, courage, and overcoming the seemingly impossible type stories. And from a birds eye view, this relatively unknown story to most under the age of 80yrs old and certainly those outside of the state of Illinois, I thought was worth shining a spotlight on.
My sports background was vast growing up, including baseball, soccer, but I excelled in basketball. I was an all-state PG for a small school outside of Cleveland, OH called Rocky River, eventually earning a scholarship. We had good runs in the OHSAA State Playoffs, but could never get by the parochial school powerhouses in the Cleveland area to make it down to the state finals at St John Arena in Columbus, Oh. Needless to say, my favorite movie of all-time is the “David vs Goliath” story that unfolds in the film “Hoosiers”. Well, as I was driving back from Lake Geneva, WI last Wednesday, a drive my family and I have made many times before, I stumbled upon a real-life Hoosiers story. We ended up taking a detour from our usual route as my son was car sick and we needed to find a place to stop. We found ourselves driving through the small town of Hebron, IL population 1100 (650 back in 1952). A true Podunk town located on the Illinois/Wisconsin border. As we’re meandering through this little town, I couldn’t help but notice the water tower painted as a basketball that read 1952 State Champions. I snapped a few photos from the car (while of course my wife giving me a side eye look), and began to think about the history and how much that must have meant to this small town back then. To paint the water tower commemorating such an event (perhaps an insignificant event mind you to many – I mean high school basketball, who cares right?), but LEAVING it like that for 69yrs, must have meant something significant for this small town back then and even today.
Now, maybe it was the Coors Lights on the golf course, coupled with the fact that Hoosiers was on T.V. that night (believe it or not it was ), and somehow I stumble across this water tower in some dinky Midwest town that nobody’s ever heard, inspired me to bring this story to light…I don’t know. But, the year was 1952 and America was less than a decade removed from WW2, her sons were home and there was a story unfolding in small town USA, where the local boy’s probably knew farming, school, and basketball – probably in that order and they called themselves “The Green Giants of Hebron”. So, being a sucker for such a story, I had to do some research on this little town in northern Illinois that nobody’s ever heard of. So, here’s me paying homage to a TRUE David vs Goliath/Hoosiers story that unfolded nearly 70yrs ago that I thought was pretty cool:
The ’52 Green Giants: https://villageofhebron.org/1952-illinois-high-school-boys-basketball-championship