The dollar index is marginally lower this morning after non-farm payrolls added another 4.8 million jobs in June, bringing the unemployment rate down to 11.1%. Buying the dollar has become a ‘risk-off’ trade. As long as optimism remains present in the markets, the dollar is likely to extend its downtrend. Currency markets are often useful in forecasting macroeconomic movements. Commodity currencies, like the Aussie dollar, are showing relative strength. This may be an indication that commodity prices are likely to continue their climb higher from the March lows. The USD is continuously failing at resistance levels, leading me to believe that stimulus may spur inflation down the line, and there may be more fiscal/monetary support coming out of Washington. Keep an eye on the Japanese yen if a ‘risk-off’ mindset returns to the markets. Over the intermediate/longer-term, the euro is likely to gain strength against the dollar given the arsenal of tools being applied by the U.S. central bank.

USD Sep ’20 Daily Chart

Ian Bannon

Ian’s interest in trading began with the stock market after graduating from Purdue University with a degree in Economics and a focus in international business. A natural strength for numbers, trends, and pattern recognition, in conjunction with a curiosity to understand the big picture has enabled a desire to understand market behavior. Ian managed his own stock account before moving into the futures arena because of the wide scope of trade-able sectors and the ample amount of fundamental support behind these larger-scope markets.