Softs

Global Uncertainty, Equity Sell-Off, Grinding Data – Which Will Lead Cocoa Futures?

Posted 10/11/2018 12:28PM CTPeter Mooses

The recent turn in the equities has taken control of the global markets causing further volatility, as stocks sold off, and some commodities followed. The currencies also tried to make sense of the recent moves – euro and pound found some strength, as did the dollar. The currencies will be a critical watch as we wait for grinding data and some guidance in the demand outlook from the key regions, North America, Europe and Asia. It does appear that most traders are anticipating demand to rise overall.

Weather in Ivory Coast has been favorable for growth. A little rain with dryer weather could help production this time of the season.

As we wait for the grinding data, European third-quarter results are set for October 15th – we will keep an eye on the technicals for short-term trades. The North American data may disappoint but the Asian grinding data has not released a negative result since 2015 so the market could find support and a rally higher over the next few weeks.

Cocoa Dec ’18 Daily Chart

Cocoa Dec '18 Daily Chart

Peter Mooses

Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO. Peter's interest in trading began during a college internship with Bunge North America on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, where he assisted commodities traders and performed market research and analysis. Upon earning a B.A. in economics from the University of Iowa, Peter served as an analyst, transaction manager and team lead in the Global Trust Divisions for LaSalle Bank and Bank of America, where he managed transaction activity in multi-million dollar client fixed income and asset-backed securities portfolios. After years in the banking industry, it became apparent that Peter's real passion lies in futures trading. He joined RJO Futures because he enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter believes in utilizing market analysis and trends to help clients achieve balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind.