Gold futures have forged out another impressive week led by gains coming from the increased chances of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool has the June 19th meeting chances of a rate cut at 22.5% and the July meeting at 86% which could impact the dollar negatively and lend additional support to the gold market. Keep an eye on the inverted yield curve with 3-month treasury yields at 2.18% and 10-year treasuries at 2.09%, if this trend continues for a period longer than a quarter the chances for a recession jump substantially. Generally, the recession happens within 7-24 months after and should spark another wave in gold while the dollar weakens.
Gold Aug ’19 Daily Chart