Gold futures have forged out another impressive week led by gains coming from the increased chances of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool has the June 19th meeting chances of a rate cut at 22.5% and the July meeting at 86% which could impact the dollar negatively and lend additional support to the gold market. Keep an eye on the inverted yield curve with 3-month treasury yields at 2.18% and 10-year treasuries at 2.09%, if this trend continues for a period longer than a quarter the chances for a recession jump substantially. Generally, the recession happens within 7-24 months after and should spark another wave in gold while the dollar weakens.

Gold Aug ’19 Daily Chart

Gold Aug '19 Daily Chart

Phillip Streible

Early in his career Phillip began trading his own account as a screen trader focusing on the metals, grains and stock indices. He then became a Series 7 licensed financial consultant with A.G. Edwards. Later, he expanded his trading experience into a Series 3 licensed commodity broker with Investment Analysis Group. Most recently he was a senior market strategist at MF Global before joining RJO Futures in October 2011 as a senior commodities broker. As a senior commodities broker his goal is to show clients how to anticipate, recognize and react to bull and bear market conditions through the use of technical analysis techniques that help them to define risk.