RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

The hog trade was down yesterday close to $2 for the October contract. Right now, the market is in overbought conditions and is expected for some long liquidation unless we see some better export numbers. China, being a major market mover, has imported 8.9% less in August as compared to a year ago. The USDA pork cutout, released after the close Friday, came in at $106.99, down from $108.19 on Thursday and $115.45 the previous week. In the last two years, the cutout has traded near $70.00 in early September. There is a lot of outside forces pressuring this market to the downside and if things continue on the international stage as they are with respect to the import and export numbers, then the market has some severe downside risk. I still like taking the short side of this in the Oct futures to $85 level, I would look to reverse above $92.50. The USDA estimated hog slaughter came in at 463,000 head Friday and 28,000 head for Saturday. This brought the total for last week to 2.398 million head, down from 2.438 million the previous week and 2.466 million a year ago. Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed managed money traders were net buyers of 4,182 contracts of lean hogs for the week ending August 31, increasing their net long to 83,389. Non-commercial & non-reportable traders were net buyers of 2,629, increasing their net long to 77,151.

Live Hogs Oct ’21 Daily Chart
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Peter McGinn

Market Strategist
Peter graduated from DePaul University with a degree in Economics. Peter started his career with an IB at the Chicago Board of Trade. He then moved on to TradeStation Securities for a time before starting as a Market Strategist at RJO Futures in 2018.
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