With the exception of Amazon, ask any restaurant owner, taxi driver, economist, business owner of almost any kind and most people walking down the street about the economy, and chances are excellent that you’ll hear about how bad the economy is and the recession that the country’s in. And unless your interest centers around your stock portfolio as a metric, they’d probably be right. But as is typical of the best leading indicator out there, the S&P market continues to perform admirably and continues to reinforce a bullish policy.
Starting on a smaller scale, the 240-min chart below details just the past month’s continued outstanding performance, despite or perhaps because of public perception, with a clear and present uptrend untainted by the skews and agendas of most accounts and media outlets. The trend is, in fact, up on all pertinent scales and has left a number of specific corrective lows of various scales at 3190, 3105 and 29-Jun’s 2983 that the market must now fail below to defer, threaten and then negate the trend and a bullish policy. These levels serve as our micro-, short- and long-term risk parameters from which a still-advised bullish policy and exposure can be objectively rebased and managed. Until and unless such weakness is proven, further and possibly accelerated gains remain expected.
Former 3230-area resistance is considered new near-term support we’d expect the market to hold per any broader bullish count.
There remain two threats to the bull: waning upside momentum and especially the market’s proximity to 20-Feb’s 3398 all-time high and obvious resistance candidate. If there’s a time and place for this market to fail miserably and resume a secular correction or bear market initiated by Mar’s bearish divergence in long-term momentum below Dec’18’s 2317 corrective low, it is here and now. And we will gauge such a relapse objectively and increasingly by proof of weakness below those specific risk parameters of various scales listed above. Until and unless such weakness is shown, frankly, nothing else matters. The trend is your friend and there’s no way to know how high “high” is.
One of the driving and reinforcing factors to this market’s amazing performance in the face of obvious bearish fundamentals is the fact that most individual investors have not only not embraced the bull, they’re fading it. The American Association of individual Investors (AAII) survey actually shows a relapse this week to 26% who have a bullish view, leaving this sentiment/contrary opinion indicator wallowing around historic lows. As is typically the case, the huddled masses are either wrong or late to the party. And until we see some this indicator move at least somewhat higher, further and possibly accelerated gains should not come as a surprise.
Perhaps the current condition is similar to that following 4Q18’s relative meltdown when Dec-Apr’19’s stunning reversal went into a 6-month funk of agonizing two-steps-up-one-step-back behavior, when everyone was doubting the economy, before resuming the bull in an explosive manner in 4Q19. Whatever.
In sum, the simple fact of the matter is that the trend remains up an any practical scale and should not surprise by its continuance or acceleration. This fact warrants a continued bullish policy and exposure with a failure below 3190 minimally required to even defer the bull, let alone threaten it, and provide very short-term traders a reason to neutralize exposure. Subsequent proof of weakness below 3105 and especially 2983 remains required for traders and investors of larger risk profiles to take defensive measures. Until such weakness is shown, further and possibly accelerated gains remain expected, including a run to new all-time highs above 3398.