Currency

Inflation Will Return When the Dollar Inevitably Breaks

Posted 04/09/2020 9:08AM CTIan Bannon

U.S. Dollar Index futures are 57 points lower on Thursday morning as foreign fiat futures are green across the board. Emerging market currencies, like the Mexican peso and Brazilian real, are notable leaders. It is not surprising to see the dollar trending lower, as this morning (and for the last few weeks) the Fed has injected unprecedented levels of liquidity into US economy. Keep an eye out for the Fed minutes being released later today. Which currencies have the most to gain when the greenback inevitably breaks? European currencies are the classic alternative. However, the ECB will be working to debase the euro with high levels of stimulus as well. Emerging market currencies will likely observe relative strength should the dollar weaken enough for inflation to return to the general economy. Higher commodity prices (i.e. inflation) often help to support the domestic currency where those commodities are produced.

USD Jun ’20 Daily Chart

Ian Bannon

Ian’s interest in trading began with the stock market after graduating from Purdue University with a degree in Economics and a focus in international business. A natural strength for numbers, trends, and pattern recognition, in conjunction with a curiosity to understand the big picture has enabled a desire to understand market behavior. Ian managed his own stock account before moving into the futures arena because of the wide scope of trade-able sectors and the ample amount of fundamental support behind these larger-scope markets.