Looking at the trade today in the September 10-year note, we have a high overnight at 139-155 and we are currently on the low at 139-005 as of this writing. What’s noteworthy today is that we broke a major moving average, the 50-day at 139-11 and approaching another key moving average in the 100-day which currently lies at 138-30.  This key moving average held twice in the last month on August 13th and 14th.  If we pierce this level again, watch out below as the trend will firmly be on the downside. Traders will be watching close on Thursday as Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference, albeit virtually. He will most likely talk about rates and inflation. If he happens to discuss the possibility of not keeping rates at zero or if he sees the slightest move up in inflation, one should expect fireworks in both treasuries and stocks. The main catalyst for the monster move up in stocks has been the continued talk of rates being kept near zero, which in turn make stocks the most attractive investment that’s available for investors. 

10-Year Note Sep ’20 Daily Chart
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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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