
Looking at the June 10-year note this morning, we are currently trading 138-15 which is down 12.5 ticks on the day. We have a high 138-26 and a low of 138085. Economic news this morning showed that the monthly ADP number that came out negative, which the street was expecting, but nevertheless a negative print has not been seen in the markets for many years. What’s very interesting is the fact that treasuries are lower after a bad number, which in my opinion, does not bode well for the entire treasury complex. When markets don’t act the way they should, traders should be very focused on a possible turning point and the probability of lower prices lies ahead. Another important development that I have been seeing in the last week or so is many of the meat producing plants have been closed due the coronavirus. This has skyrocketed the price of meat and other products that many families consume. That will no doubt cause inflation for at the grocery stores. If that happens, you could see interest rates start to go much higher than the Fed would like them to, and with 30 million or so unemployed, that will cause a monster problem for families and the fed alike. Look for the June 10-year to go lower and potentially consider selling rallies.
