The treasuries have been acting like your typical safe-haven in the last week as the coronavirus has been spreading and death rates in the U.S. are continually rising.  Yesterday, however, we saw the rate of new cases fall and that led to some optimism that this deadly virus might be slowing. Hence, we saw a big rally in the stocks yesterday and that has continued into today, although stocks are higher this morning, they are way off the highs. Currently, the ten-year note is down 23 at 137-22, seeing a high made last night at 138-15 and a low this morning at 137-19. Hopefully the virus is contained, and people are safe as soon as possible.  

Traders should be aware that the economy has been damaged from this unfortunate outbreak and must remember that last Thursday we saw 10-million new people file for unemployment. There are going to be long lasting ripples in the economy as most companies have been shut down for a month, so I would not expect the stock market to enter a new bull phase anytime soon. As we move forward, I would expect we see lots of volatility in both treasuries and stock alike, but I would not expect much more in the way of downside in notes, simply because of the immense damage we have seen in the U.S. economy.

10-Year Note Jun ’20 30 Min Chart
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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist

Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.

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