Looking at the December 10-year note we have a high of 133-145 and a low of 132-305 and currently trading at 132-315. What we have been seeing in the last few weeks is data coming out on the weak side which has given the note a bid. Today that changed and possibly the trend as well. This morning the street was watching retail sales and was expecting a reading of down 0.8% but instead we saw a somewhat robust reading of up 0.7% which definitely took traders by surprise and we are seeing the yield on the 10-year at 1.35%, which making traders think that chairman Powell might actually taper earlier rather than later. In today’s down move we are currently under the 50-day moving average which currently lies at 133-13 and often is a good predictor of a trend change. Looking at this market from a technical view, I would say selling rallies in the note with protection above the 50-day moving average might be a good trade since, in my opinion, we have entered a short-term downtrend. 

10-Yr Note Dec ’21 Daily Chart
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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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