Looking at the March 10-year, overnight we saw a high of 137-21 and this morning we had a low of 137-09. Currently, we are trading at 137-105. We have seen pressure in todays trade on continued optimism on the vaccine front with deliveries taking place in the next two weeks. That has certainly added to a “risk on” environment in the trading complex. Earlier this morning we saw the monthly ADP employment report come in lower than expected. The street was looking for 410k, and the actual number came in significantly lower at 307K. Normally, this would have been a bullish sign for treasuries, but the market seems fixated on vaccine news rather than economic numbers. Friday morning, we have the monthly employment numbers which will certainly be watched closely as the weekly claims numbers in the last month or so have ticked up, so I would expect a weaker than expected payroll number as well.   Technically the March 10-year being below the 50-day moving average is a bearish sign and that number sits at 138-105. On the downside, traders should be cognizant at the 136-265 level which was the low in the contract on November 11. First time down I would expect a bounce at that level.

10-Year Note Mar ’21 Daily Chart
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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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