RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Looking at the March 10-year overnight we had a high of 137.02 and a low of 136-23 and the market is currently trading 136-29 down two ticks. The trade the last few days has been quiet as earnings season has started and many are awaiting to see how companies performed last quarter amid the pandemic.  The notes in general have been trending down in recent weeks as traders have noted that Biden is looking at a massive stimulus bill that should be presented in the not too distant future. That is looked at as being negative as the money being sent out to people should encourage spending and hopefully will also put some money in consumers pocket that have been unemployed due to the pandemic. If you look at many of the outside markets, one can say inflation has already arrived which will be negative for the interest rate markets. Many of the grain markets have been making new contract highs recently, particularly soybeans and corn. So, as these markets continue to act bullish, which is often viewed as inflationary, one should expect the notes to remain on the defensive. Looking at technicals, I see good resistance in the March 10 year at 137-10-13 area and would look to sell rallies if those the levels are hit.   

10-Year Note Mar ’21 Daily Chart
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Greg Perlin

Senior Market Strategist
Greg is a former Chicago Board of Trade member. He was an independent floor trader, pit broker and floor broker with Cantor Fitzgerald. Some of his clients included traders from Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers. He also acted in the capacity of desk manager for the morning trade desk. Greg was part of the elite Lind Plus Division for 10 years before joining RJO Futures in 2011.
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