Looking at the June 10-year, we saw a narrow range overnight that has continued into today with a high of 132-025 and a low of 131-255, currently the note sits at 132-01. The market is on guard today with the announcement of the FOMC decision at 1:00p.m. followed by Chairman Powell’s Q&A at 1:30p.m. The market sees no change in rates and expects Powell to continue to remain dovish. The risk lies that Powell hints he is seeing a faster than anticipated uptick in inflation. All one must do is look at recent price action in the grain and lumber contracts to know inflation is already picking up. Another risk the market faces is that Powell hints that the fed will start to taper its bond purchases. Both risks are high because most expect Powell to remain consistent with being dovish. Looking at the charts, I see stiff resistance at the 50-day moving average at 132-095 and support way down at the April 5th low at 130-255. I would look to sell rallies near the 132-095 level if given the opportunity.
