RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Overnight’s break above 02-Sep’s 70.61 high reaffirms the recovery from 23-Aug’s 61.74 low and leaves Thur’s 67.56 low in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low the market is now minimally required to fail below to confirm a bearish divergence in momentum, break this uptrend and expose another intra-range relapse.  IN lieu of such sub-67.56 weakness, at least the intermediate-term trend remains up and is expected to continue and perhaps accelerated with former 70.00-to-70.50-area resistance considered new near-term support and that 67.56 low considered our new short-term risk parameter from which traders can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a still-advised bullish policy and exposure.

This tighter but objective bull risk parameter at 67.56 may come in handy given the fact that this market has thus far retraced exactly 61.8% of Jul-Aug’s 76.98 – 61.74 decline, remains deep within the middle-half bowels of the past couple months’ range and maintains historically frothy bullish sentiment/contrary opinion levels that warn of downside vulnerability.  If a more immediate bullish policy and exposure are the correct calls under these circumstances, then it is imperative for the bull to BEHAVE LIKE ONE with sustained, trendy, impulsive price action above 67.56.  A failure below 67.56 will not negate our long-term bullish count calling 23-Aug’s 61.74 low and key risk parameter the end or lower boundary to a major (4tjh-Wave) correction down from 76.98, but it would certainly mitigate a more immediate bullish count and perpetuate further aimless price action and the multi-month lateral consolidation.

These issues considered, a bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 67.56 required to defer or threaten this count enough to warrant moving to a neutral/sideline position.  In lieu of such sub-67.56 weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains straight away and to eventual new highs above 76.98 are anticipated.

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