Is Sugar Ready for a Reversal?Posted 10/23/2019 9:12AM CT |
Mar ’20 sugar futures start the day down again but may find its footing soon. Demand concerns have weighed down heavily on prices and indication that the 2020/21 crop will rebound with high yields have granted managed money funds an opportunity to press prices down further. Sugar has been weak from a technical perspective, even with recent strength in the Brazilian real, sugar has seen very little support. There could be a change in demand tone however, with China making a large increase in imports. From the supply side there is a lot of support for the near to intermediate term as we are going into a period where supplies could be tight with what’s expected to be a massive production deficit for the 2019/20 crop; which could be a bullish opportunity for spread traders, with near term supplies threatening to be tight and the next crop possibly abundant. Looking at the charts traders should notice that each time prices have broken down below 1225, it has only been temporary and followed by a sharp rally. With this market so heavily oversold I think that as news shifts to tightening near term supplies we may see prices spiking higher soon.