Posted on Nov 29, 2023, 08:34 by Dave Toth

The continuation and reaffirmation of the bear trend in the Jan contract is clear in the 240-min chart below that shows yesterday’s 2.992 high as the latest smaller-degree corrective high this market is now minimally required to recoup to even defer, let alone threaten this decline.  Per such, we’re defining 2.92 as our new short-term risk parameter pertinent to shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles.

Stepping back a bit, the daily log scale chart of the Jan contract below shows the magnitude of the collapse from 31-Oct’s 3.865 high that has “3rd-wave” written all over it.  This count suggests AT LEAST an interim (suspected 4th-Wave) corrective bounce ahead of at least one more (5th-Wave) round of new lows thereafter before even the potential for a bullish divergence in momentum is created to threaten the slide.  And given the prospect that the decline from 3.865 is “extending”, there may be a couple different scales of such 4th-wave corrective bounces ahead of 5th-wave resumptions of the decline to complete the sequence.

On a broader scale, we’ve also noted in both the 240-min chart above and daily chart below 10-Nov’s 3.273 low that is a 1st-Wave of “some” degree.  This market should not be able to even come close to this level, let alone recoup it, for this continued bearish count to remain correct and intact.  Per such, we’re defining 3.273 as our new key long-term bear risk parameter pertinent to longer-term commercial players.

We emphasize these bear risk parameters in the prompt futures contract- Jan24 currently- because on a weekly log active-continuation basis below, it’s hard to ignore Apr-Oct’s 87% recovery from 1.926 to 3.643 as the start of a BASE/reversal threat that could be as major in scope as that stemming from Jun’20’s 1.517 low amidst similar long-term base/reversal elements.  Nonetheless, by virtue of last week’s bearish divergence in weekly momentum below mid-Oct’s 2.880 corrective low, Apr-Oct’s uptrend has arguably been broken, exposing at least a (B- or 2nd-Wave) corrective rebuttal of Apr-Oct’s rally OR possibly a resumption of the secular bear trend from Aug’22’s 10.028 high to new lows below 1.946.

These issues considered, a bearish policy and exposure remain advised with a recovery above at least 2.92 required for shorter-term traders to move to the sidelines and commensurately larger-degree strength above 3.273 for longer-term commercial players to follow suit.  In lieu of such strength, further and possibly accelerated losses should not surprise.

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