June gold has seen quite the rally since the Mid-March 1200 lows. We have recently seen gold spike to new relative highs we have not seen since the election back in November. The US Military recently launched missiles targeting a Syrian airbase that launched this week’s chemical attack, and is currently up $17. Gold has now moved through the 200-day moving average and needs a close above 1265 to turn the longer term trend higher. Gold will likely see resistance at 1275, which corresponds with congestion back in October. If we manage to clear this hurdle a run to 1320 is not out of the question. There is currently a risk off mentality given the uncertainty surrounding conflict in the Middle East, the ability to pass significant tax reform in a timely manner, and recent economic data this morning showing a large drop in non-farm payrolls well below expectations. If this economic data continues to come in below expectations, or has any hint of not being “stellar” you could continue to see a build in gold.
If you look at this from a technical standpoint. The market is in a clear bull direction. The MACD has crossed indicating a buy signal on March 20. We are marching toward overbought territory at this point, and it will take more bullish news regarding conflict or poor economic data to put this market into a sustainable rally. At this point 1250 becomes excellent support, and traders should use this level to structure option strategies with 1225 becoming the next level of support beneath that.