RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

June cattle continued to trade lower yesterday with expectations for beef demand to drop considerably after the holiday. This year may be a little different in the fact that Argentina is banning exports next month and consumer spending is expected to increase over the next couple months due to an increase in consumer disposable income. These factors should keep the market supported for the next couple weeks. I suspect June cattle finds support at the 115 level before moving higher. Cash live cattle appear to have softened a bit in the plains. In Kansas on Thursday 1,391 head traded at 119 versus an average of 119.35 last week.In Nebraska 4,352 head traded at 118-120 with an average price of 119.90 versus 120.32 last week. In Texas/Oklahoma 665 head traded at 118-119 with an average price of 118.81 versus 119.32 last week. The early selling yesterday drove June cattle all the way down to 115.70 before a strong recovery. US beef export sales for the week ending May 13 came in at 56,947 tonnes, up from 13,196 the previous week and the highest weekly total on record back to at least 2002. Packer profit margins are extremely high and the continued advance in beef prices this week could encourage a firm tone to the cash market next week. The USDA boxed beef cutout was up 14 cents at mid-session yesterday and closed 80 cents higher at $324.18. This was up from $316.78 the previous week and was the highest the cutout had been since June 1, 2020. It has increased for nine straight sessions and in 23 out of the last 24. 

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Peter McGinn

Market Strategist
Peter graduated from DePaul University with a degree in Economics. Peter started his career with an IB at the Chicago Board of Trade. He then moved on to TradeStation Securities for a time before starting as a Market Strategist at RJO Futures in 2018.
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