Softs

Lower Covid-19 Case Numbers Brings Hope to Longer-Term Cocoa Demand Outlook

Posted 02/26/2021 8:59AM CTPeter Mooses

Cocoa prices saw a move higher this week – with the May contract trading towards 2600. As Covid vaccines continue to be distributed, cases appear to be headed lower. If this pattern continues, look for more areas to lighten up restrictions and this should lead to economic growth. Cocoa specifically has been greatly affected by lockdowns. Chocolate companies continue to report weaker data during the pandemic as consumers shift their income towards necessities.

Looking at the currencies, a weaker Pound and stronger Euro has had little affect on this week’s cocoa rally. Cocoa appears to be trading more off its own fundamental hope and less off the macro picture as we have seen weaker equities this week.

Cocoa producing nations are deciding on whether they should come together to have more control of the supply side of the equation, but many are leery. This could cause issues on many levels – mainly with their local governments.

Technically, cocoa appears to be headed for 2700 in the May contract if vaccines rollouts continue to show that they are helping the public. Next week will be telling for the soft, if equities continue to move lower and currencies continue their volatility will cocoa continue its own trend higher?

Cocoa May ’21 Daily Chart

Peter Mooses

Follow Peter on Twitter @PMoosesRJO. Peter's interest in trading began during a college internship with Bunge North America on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade, where he assisted commodities traders and performed market research and analysis. Upon earning a B.A. in economics from the University of Iowa, Peter served as an analyst, transaction manager and team lead in the Global Trust Divisions for LaSalle Bank and Bank of America, where he managed transaction activity in multi-million dollar client fixed income and asset-backed securities portfolios. After years in the banking industry, it became apparent that Peter's real passion lies in futures trading. He joined RJO Futures because he enjoys the analytical aspects of futures trading and appreciates the economic impact that commodities have across all markets. Peter believes in utilizing market analysis and trends to help clients achieve balance between risk and return, while always keeping their investment objectives top of mind.