Coffee prices continue to make lower highs and lower lows, threatening to revisit the 118 level not seen since December of last year. The ongoing story has been weak near-term supply versus the promise of a large upcoming crop from the world’s largest producer. Although the near-term supply from Brazil is scarce, we will have to keep in mind that other major producers throughout the world are in a good position to export. Demand continues to be strong, but is it going to be enough to combat the upcoming abundance of Brazilian coffee?

The 118 level should pose strong support for March coffee prices, while upside resistance will come in around 126. I’d expect to see some continued large swings in this range for quite some time as the fundamentals and supply/demand issues continue to slug it out.

Coffee Mar ’18 Daily Chart