A supportive, positive USDA supply outlook, coupled with a weakening dollar has March coffee rallying to visit highs above the critical resistance level of 12260. With the S&P 500 looking strong, the demand side of the equation seems to be coming into play. Volume has lightened in the sell side, and it’s likely that this short-covering rally may end up with March coffee challenging the former range high of 133. Near-term support will come in at 11830, while the next area of resistance to monitor will be the aforementioned range bottom of 125. Coffee prices will need some fresh “tight-supply” news to spark a break of said resistance. In the meantime, the 125 level should in fact present formidable resistance. Even if resistance is broken, March coffee will likely continue to play out its “range-bound” dance for a little while between 125 and 133 levels.
Coffee Mar ’18 Daily Chart