The coffee supply situation is still putting strong pressure on the March coffee futures. The world’s number one coffee producer (Brazil) has increased their outlook for next year’s production numbers, which will continue to keep the market in check. In addition, the continued weakness and uncertainty in the stock market has resulted in more “risk-off” mentality and we will likely see a continued downtrend situation.

On the technical side, we’ve finally taken out the 100 level, and were able to reach a low of 9860 in today’s price action. Today’s low falls just shy of the September 18th critical support area of 9855. I would expect that we will see a brief short covering rally over the next week with a possible retracement to the 105 level before a continued sell off takes place.

Coffee Mar ’19 Daily Chart

Coffee Mar '19 Daily Chart

Adam Tuiaana

Adam grew up in Chicago and was always fascinated by the fast-paced action found in the futures market hub there. He began participating in the financial markets by trading stocks in 1997 and began his career as a trading consultant with RJO Futures in March of 2009. At RJO, he specializes in risk management and disciplined trading plans, and is focused on educating clients with one-on-one consulting and training. Adam believes the best approach to trading is to take a measured and objective approach and let the markets guide your decisions.