Although we have seen some strength over the past week in May coffee prices, the US dollar continues to show strength, adding ongoing pressure to coffee prices. It was reported by The Hightower Group that “Vietnam’s coffee exports for the January- February period were expected to come in near 347,000 tonnes” but it looks like they were short of this number. This has allowed coffee prices to hold some support at the 120 level. However, we cannot deny the fact coffee prices did manage to violate the critical low of 12051 from December 12 of last year. Although some short covering and consolidation may take place in the near term, with the inverse pressure continuing from a strong US dollar and large upcoming crop in Brazil, I would expect another retest of the 118 area in the next week or so.
Coffee May ’18 Daily Chart