Yesterday we saw August cattle have a good surge in the market on average volume which may give the market a bullish turn and have found a short-term low in the market. With restaurants re-opening and beef prices being relatively cheap, we may see some demand perk up and prices trend higher. Anything to dampen this bullish upturn would be China putting up trade barriers for beef and pork but that doesn’t seem to be the case as China is in need for increasing their pork and beef imports. Technically, the MACD is starting to cross to the upside, pairing that with yesterday’s trade on decent volume we could see this market start to retest the early June/ late May highs of $100. 

The USDA estimated cattle slaughter came in at 120,000 head yesterday. This brings the total for the week so far to 239,000 head, up from 238,000 last week at this time but down from 244,000 a year ago. The USDA boxed beef cutout was down $1.75 at mid-session yesterday and closed $2.25 lower at $211.81. This was down from $227.89 the previous week and $219.74 a year ago. This is the lowest the cutout has been since March 13. Cash live cattle traded in light volume (437 head) at $97 on Tuesday, down from $100 last week and in line with the trends on Friday and Monday.

Live Cattle Aug ’20 Daily Chart

Peter McGinn

Peter graduated from DePaul University with a degree in Economics. Peter started his career with an IB at the Chicago Board of Trade. He then moved on to TradeStation Securities for a time before starting as a Market Strategist at RJO Futures in 2018.