In Mon’s Technical Webcast we identified last Thur’s 7.146 minor corrective high as a short-term risk parameter the market needed to recover above to arrest the past week’s sell-off attempt, render it a 3-wave and thus corrective affair we suspect it is, and re-expose the secular bull trend. Basis the now-prompt Jun contract, the 240-min chart below shows last Thur’s analogous high at 7.274, today’s recovery above which confirms a bullish divergence in momentum. This mo failure defines Mon’s 6.471 low as the end of what we believe is only a 3-wave decline from 18-Apr’s 8.197 high. Left unaltered by a relapse below 6.471, this 3-wave setback is considered a (4th-Wave) corrective/consolidative event that now warns of a resumption of the secular bull trend that preceded it to new highs above 8.197. Per such, this 6.471 level serves as our new short-term risk parameter from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a resumed bullish policy and exposure.
On a broader scale and against the backdrop of the secular bull trend shown in the daily (above) and weekly (below) log charts, it’s easy to see last week’s sell-off attempt as another mere corrective hiccup. The market’s “hold” thus far above former 6.466-area resistance from last Oct as new support would seem to reinforce this bull market correction count. These issues considered, a bullish policy and exposure remain advised for long-term commercial players with a failure below 6.471 required to pare exposure to more conservative levels and commensurately larger-degree weakness below 30-Matr’s 5.326 larger-degree corrective low required to jettison remaining exposure. Shorter-term traders whipsawed out of bullish exposure on last week’s bearish divergence in short-term momentum are advised to return to a bullish policy and exposure at-the-market (7.305) with a failure below 6.471 required to negate this call and warrant its cover. In lieu of such sub-6.471 weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains are anticipated straight away, including a resumption of the secular bull trend above 8.197.