Yesterday’s break below Thur’s 61.82 initial counter-trend low confirms a bearish divergence in short-term momentum as shown in the hourly chart below.  This divergence defines 04-May’s 66.95 high as the probable end of a textbook 5-wave Elliott sequence up from 14-Apr’s 41.50 low.  The Fibonacci fact that the suspected 5th-Wave of this sequence from 29-Apr’s 54.77 low spanned a length 61.8% of (i.e. 0.618 progression) of the net distance of Waves-i-thru-iii from 41.50 to 60.77 would seem to reinforce this count and defines last week’s 66.95 high as one of developing importance and our new short-term risk parameter from which non-bullish decisions like long-covers and cautious bearish punts can be objectively based and managed ahead of at least a steeper correction of Apr-May’s 41.50 – 66.95 rally.

The extent and impulsiveness of Apr/May’s recovery is not unimpressive and easily fits the bill as just the initial (A- or 1st-Wave) of a broader base/correction/reversal PROCESS.  But especially coming off such a deep, punishing bear market meltdown such as that experienced in 1Q20, a potentially extensive (B- or 2nd-wave corrective rebuttal/retest of last month’s low would not be uncommon at all within such a process.  As a result of the interim peak/reversal facts and factors discussed above, we believe such a correction is at hand hand and could easily retrace 50% (54.22) or 61.8% (51.22) or more straight away while 04-May’s 66.95 high remains intact as a resistant cap and risk parameter.

From a historical perspective shown in the monthly log active-continuation chart below, the market’s quick, violent return to the middle of the middle-half bowels of the 40-to-100-range that has encapsulated it for the past FIVE YEARS questions the risk/reward merits of any bullish policy “up here”, especially given all of the metrics that went into the prior YEAR’S complete meltdown.  From this long-term perspective, the risk/reward merits of a bullish policy and exposure from the 51-handle-area are admirable.  From 60+ levels, not so much.

These issued considered, traders are advised to move to a neutral-to-cautiously-bearish policy from current 60.25-area levels OB with a recovery above 66.95 required to negate this call, warrant its immediate cover and return to a bullish policy.  In lieu of such strength, we anticipate further and possibly protracted corrective losses straight away to the 54-handle and possibly the 51-handle or lower where a relapse-stemming bullish divergence in momentum could provide one of the great risk/reward buying opportunities for the second-half of 2020.

RJO Market Insights

RJO Market Insights specializes in forward-thinking analysis, focused on potential market-moving events and dominant factors driving price discovery. Detailed fundamental and technical coverage across multiple commodity sectors is combined with objectively-constructed trade recommendations to provide an industry-leading product for R.J. O’Brien’s Institutional clients, commercial hedgers, introducing brokers and individual investors free of charge. Content is distributed in both text and audio formats, with specialized service offerings provided by account type.
For more information on RJO Market Insights, contact your broker or RJO representative.