RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Today’s break above 18-Apr’s 8.197 reaffirms the secular bull trend and our bullish resurrected in 27-Apr’s Technical Blog following that day’s bullish divergence in short-term momentum above 7.274 that rendered mid-Apr’s sell-off attempt from 8.197 to 6.471 a 3-wave and thus corrective structure as labeled in the 240-min chart above.  This resumed strength defines 25-Apr’s 6.471 low as our new larger-degree corrective low and key long-term bull risk parameter pertinent to longer-term commercial players.  From a shorter-term perspective, we believe 27-Apr’s 7.524 high is the smaller-degree 1st-Wave of an eventual 5-wave sequence up from 6.471 and a level the market would now be expected to sustain gains above to maintain the impulsive integrity of this count.  Per such, we’re defining this 7.524 level as the tightest objective risk parameter at this time pertinent to shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles.

On a broader scale, the weekly (above) and monthly (below) log scale charts show the resumption and magnitude of the secular bull trend.  The market is encroaching on a couple Fibonacci progression relationships amidst understandably frothy levels in the Bullish Consensus (marketvane.net) and may be in the completing 5th-Wave of a massive Elliott sequence from Jun’20’s 1.517 low.  But none of these peak/reversal-threat elements mean a thing until and unless the market breaks the clear and present and major uptrend pattern of higher highs and higher lows.  Herein lies the importance of 25-Apr’s 6.471 larger-degree corrective low and key risk parameter, the failure below which is required to CONFIRM a bearish divergence in momentum, stem the uptrend and reject/define a more reliable high and resistance from which non-bullish decisions like long-covers can only then be objectively based and managed.  In lieu of such weakness, the trend is up on all scales and should not surprise by its continuance or acceleration.

In sum, a full and aggressive bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 7.524 required for shorter-term traders to step aside and commensurately larger-degree weakness below 6.471 required for longer-term commercial players to follow suit.  In lieu of such weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains straight away are expected.

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