After three down days in a row, natural gas is moving toward good support. It broke through the $2.750 mark and is currently fighting to stay above this price. Below the support level may move the trading to a lower range between $2.700 and $2.650. A close above $2.87 could send prices above $2.900, but I wouldn’t bet on it. It is the season between heating and cooling, and demand is not being driven by household usage. Momentum studies and moving averages are trending lower, this should accelerate any moves in this direction. However, the $2.750 to $2.850 range seems the most likely to hold.
Above normal temperatures are forecast for the coming weeks, and draws should be lessened in the weekly storage numbers. Yesterday’s storage was estimated at -49 bcf. The actual number was -47 bcf almost right in line the estimates. This is a far cry from the triple digit draws of the last few weeks. Higher temps and the “tweener” seasonals between heating and cooling should hold prices in check for a few weeks, barring any black swan occurrences we should stay in the current range.
Natural Gas Apr ’19 Daily Chart