RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

Energies

Natural Gas Looking for Support on Downward Slide

Posted 07/19/2018 10:28AM CT | Jeff Ratajczak

The Sep ‘18 natural gas futures contract is clearly down today.  For five days now, the trend has been going straight down.  It is reaching toward the bottom of the trading range and is challenging the Dec ‘18 low of $2.529.  If it closes below $2.650 look out below.   A close above the area of $2.800 is needed to reverse the trend and bring bullish forces back into play.  Momentum studies are trending lower and are getting near oversold levels.  Caution should be exercised, because we are still waiting for a divergence to change our bias toward the direction of the market. 

The storage number today is 46 bcf, right around the 3-yr range.  Last week’s number of 51 bcf was average at best.  Production increases balance between normal or slightly below normal weather around the country and heat in the South and West.  I still like the exposure to the short side of the market, with caution toward a change in direction due to a reversal in momentum studies like RSI and MACD.

Natural Gas Sep ’18 Daily Chart

Natural Gas Sep '18 Daily Chart

Jeff Ratajczak

Jeff attended Illinois State University. In 1993 Jeff began his financial career in the stock market as a retail broker. He transitioned to futures in 1999 with LFG Intermarket Group, which became ZAP Futures. In 2004 ZAP Futures was acquired by RJO Futures' parent company R.J. O'Brien. Jeff's focus is to assist clients in managing risk and speculate through futures and options strategies.