Once again, the price action on natural gas has slipped into a small range. Short-term it is downward trend and could challenge the lower end of the trading range. A close below the range $2.770 could send trading into a new range, where the former bottom becomes the resistance.  I don’t think it will happen, but crazier things happened around expiration of the Feb contract and options.  A close above $3.150 may put the bulls in control and send the prices much higher. I believe this is the more likely to happen. Momentum indicators are at mid-levels and moving averages are mixed at best. 

The next week or so calls for colder temperatures however, gas production is ahead of last years production.  A smaller withdrawal is expected on the next storage report. The weather has a decided warming trend early in Feb and may call for less consumption. The polar vortex may return, and support natty prices. The weather will be the determining factor in the price until the heating season ends. I think up in the short term will be the path of least resistance.

Natural Gas Mar ’19 Daily Chart

Natural Gas Mar '19 Daily Chart

Jeff Ratajczak

Jeff attended Illinois State University. In 1993 Jeff began his financial career in the stock market as a retail broker. He transitioned to futures in 1999 with LFG Intermarket Group, which became ZAP Futures. In 2004 ZAP Futures was acquired by RJO Futures' parent company R.J. O'Brien. Jeff's focus is to assist clients in managing risk and speculate through futures and options strategies.