10-Yr Note Daily Chart

The daily chart of the Dec contract above shows the market’s past couple weeks’ relapse to the lower recesses of the past month’s 117.135 – 119.06-range that presents a slippery slope for bears “down here”.  Similarly but inversely, the daily log close-only chart of 10-yr yields below shows the recent rate rebound that has come close to but remains capped by 05-Oct’s 3.237% high.  From a longer-term perspective the extent to which the contract has tested the extreme lower recesses of the past month’s range raises the odds that the price action up from 08-Oct’s 117.135 low is corrective/consolidative and reinforces our long-term bearish count.  Until the market breaks below 117.13 however (above 3.237%), the lateral continuation of this range should not come as a surprise.  And if another intra-range rebound lies ahead, we need to look for and require a bullish divergence in MOMENTUM to stem this recent relapse and tilt the intermediate-term directional scales back to the bull side.

Benchmark Yield Daily Chart

Drilling down to a 240-min chart on a close-only basis, the chart below shows the nicely developing POTENTIAL for a bullish divergence in momentum.  But proof of strength above yesterday’s 118.07 corrective high is required to CONFIRM the signal to the point of non-bearish action like short-covers and cautious bullish punts.  Per such, this 118.07 level serves as our new micro risk parameter around which shorter-term traders can effectively position for another intra-range rebound.

Needless to say, 08-Oct’s 117.16 low and 29-Oct’s 119.02 high remain intact as this market’s key longer-term directional triggers.

10-Yr Note Dec '18 240 Min Chart

Finally and from a very long-term perspective, the weekly log chart below shows the past month’s chop as barely recognizable relative to the magnitude of the secular bear trend.  On this scale commensurately larger-degree strength above at least 22-Aug’s 120.24 corrective high remains required to even defer, let alone threaten our count calling for a secular bear trend in Treasuries that could span a generation.  In effect, we believe the past 2-1/2-year’s peak/reversal process and activity to be the inverse the major peak/reversal process between 1981 and 1984 before that lead to a generation-long secular bear that we believe ended 2016.  Within the secular bear trend will undoubtedly be periods of correction/consolidation like Mar-Sep’17’s recovery attempt and even May’Aug’17’s bounce.  But until and unless this market 1) recovers above a prior corrective high of commensurate scale, 2) recovers in a trendy, impulsive manner and, 3) relapses in a labored corrective manner, the secular bear trend that could span years or even a generation remains arguably intact.

These issues considered, a cautiously bearish stance remains advised with a recovery above 118.07 required to defer or threaten this call enough to warrant moving to a neutral-to-cautiously-bullish position ahead of an expected rebound to the upper-quarter of the recent range where a preferred risk/reward bearish position can be re-established.  Until such 118.07+ strength is shown however, further losses should not surprise with a failure below 117.135 reinstating the secular bear and exposing potentially significant losses thereafter that would warrant a resumed full bearish policy.10-Yr Note Weekly Chart

RJO Market Insights

RJO Market Insights specializes in forward-thinking analysis, focused on potential market-moving events and dominant factors driving price discovery. Detailed fundamental and technical coverage across multiple commodity sectors is combined with objectively-constructed trade recommendations to provide an industry-leading product for R.J. O’Brien’s Institutional clients, commercial hedgers, introducing brokers and individual investors free of charge. Content is distributed in both text and audio formats, with specialized service offerings provided by account type.
For more information on RJO Market Insights, contact your broker or RJO representative.