RJO FuturesCast

Daily Futures Market News, Commentary, & Insight

JUL SOYBEANS

Today’s continue rally above last week’s 15.24 high and resistance leaves Fri’s 14.98 low in its wake as the latest smaller-degree corrective low the market is now required to sustain gains above to maintain a more immediate bullish count.  Its failure to do so will confirm a bearish divergence in short-term momentum and expose what we’d then suspect is just an interim (4th-Wave) correction within the still-unfolding secular bull trend.  As the next larger-degree risk parameter is being defined by 01-Apr’s 14.34 (suspected minor 1st-Wave) high however, shorter-term traders unwilling to risk bullish exposure to 14.34 would be advised to neutralize bullish exposure on a failure below 14.98.  Per such, we’re identifying this 14.98 level as our new short-term risk parameter from which shorter-term traders with tighter risk profiles can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a still-advised bullish policy and exposure.

On a broader scale, the daily log scale chart below shows the preponderance of former resistance around the 14.45-area that, since broken, serves as a considerable new support candidate.  Given the accelerated, 3rd-wave-nature of the past couple weeks’ resumed uptrend however, this market shouldn’t now come anywhere close to 01-Apr’s 14.34 Globex day-session and suspected 1st-Wave high, let alone break it.  Such sub-14.34 weakness would jeopardize the impulsive integrity of a broader bullish count and fail below former resistance-turned-support that, along with historically frothy bullish sentiment, would threaten the secular bull.  Per such, we’re defining this 14.34 level as our new long-term risk parameter from which longer-term commercial players can objectively rebase and manage the risk of a still-advised bullish policy and exposure.

The weekly (above) and monthly (below) log scale charts show the magnitude of this secular bull trend that shows N O levels of any technical merit above the market shy of 2012’s 17.89 all-time high.  In effect, there is no resistance.  Every technical level of any pertinence now exists only BELOW the market in the form of recent corrective lows like 14.98 and former resistance-turned-support like the 14.45-to-14.60-area.  Until and unless the market fails below such levels and conditions, the trend remains up on all scales and is fully expected to continue to levels indeterminately higher.

In sum, a bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 14.98 required for shorter-term traders to step aside to circumvent the depths unknown of an interim correction  and commensurately larger-degree weakness below 14.34 for longer-term commercial players to follow suit.  In lieu of such weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains remain expected.

NOV SOYBEANS

The technical construct and expectations for the Nov contract are identical to those detailed above for Jul with our short- and longer-term bull risk parameters at 13.26 and 12.81, respectively.

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