December gold futures continue to draw in buyers on what looks like well below average trading volume over the past few weeks. If there was a chance for gold to rally it was going to be yesterday or really anytime this week with all the back and forth between Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. There was plenty of infighting among democrats and republicans as a stimulus deal continues to become more and more elusive. I am looking at technical aspects of gold alone at this point and closely watching for an announcement of a stimulus deal potentially being reached. A deal being reached for what appears to be just shy of $2T would surely push gold into a breakout zone which I see as anything above $1940. This is a key level for traders to watch as it’s a significant technical level as it breaches the down trend we have been in since August 18th. Anyone buying gold here is clearly wanting a stimulus package to be passed, but again the chances continue to dwindle with what I would say as 20% chance of a “deal” being reached before the election. Gold this morning is trading as I write this, under the $1900 level and breaking the slight upward trend we’ve in since September 28th. I would say that the trading activity this morning is more concerning as gold is really struggling to hold onto gains and any further slip here will likely trigger selling down to the multi month lows of $1850 in a hurry. Traders should be positioning short with hedge protection with options in place, which can be done quite cheap. Please contact me directly for strategy development.

Gold Dec ’20 Daily Chart

Joshua Graves

Josh began his career in May of 2013 after graduating from Purdue University, West Lafayette. He received a degree in Agricultural Economics, with a Certificate in Entrepreneurship. He started at Paragon Investments in Kansas, the heart of wheat country. While working there he developed long term relationships with corn, soybean, and wheat producers, speaking with them on a weekly basis. His goal was to market their physical production more effectively through tracking basis, as well as hedge their exposure in the grain and cattle markets through a variety of futures and option strategies. He then moved to Florida to work for PFL Petroleum, a physical biofuels brokerage, and gained significant exposure to OTC and physical energy markets. Trading has been a passion from day one of his career. In his free time he stays active in downtown Chicago, attends sporting events, and holds an FAA Private Pilot’s License and flies Cirrus and Cessna aircraft regularly.