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Energies

Normal Temps and a Draw in Storage for Natural Gas

Posted 11/16/2017 8:42AM CT | Jeff Ratajczak

With two days closing slightly higher, the short term trend has turned sideways to positive. The bull gap from November 6 is holding for now, and has slightly bullish implications. The first level of resistance is seen around 3.141. A close above 3.231, the second resistance level, can signal the start of another leg higher toward a target of 3.285. Support once again will be seen at 3.050 at the top of last week’s gap. Below that 3.000 can be used as second support and stops for longer term bullish plays. Momentum studies are at mid levels.

Today’s storage number calls for draw of -15 bcf this week well below the 5-year average. The 5-year average is for a 12 bcf injection. The draw won’t make a big difference in overall storage, but people trade off the reported number. A draw of more than -15 may spark buying, whereas a surprise injection may cause a decrease. Warmer weather was prevalent yesterday across the US. Chicago had a high near 50 degrees. Today however, more seasonal temperatures return and highs should struggle to hit 40. Normal temp’s going into the weekend are predicted. I’m still in the bull camp, with careful long plays or call options suggested.

 

Dec ’17 Natural Gas Daily Chart

Dec '17 Natural Gas Daily Chart

Jeff Ratajczak

Jeff attended Illinois State University. In 1993 Jeff began his financial career in the stock market as a retail broker. He transitioned to futures in 1999 with LFG Intermarket Group, which became ZAP Futures. In 2004 ZAP Futures was acquired by RJO Futures' parent company R.J. O'Brien. Jeff's focus is to assist clients in managing risk and speculate through futures and options strategies.