Posted on 12/12/2023 8:22 AM by Dave Toth
By breaking 27-Jul’s key 4635 high shown in the weekly chart below, the market has nullified our peak/reversal count from that high and reinstated and reaffirmed the major uptrend from Oct’22’s 3502 high. This chart also shows NO levels of any technical merit between spot and Jan’22’s 48808 all-time high, the lone remaining threshold this market must now recoup straight away to negate what we have proposed is a multi-quarter peak/reversal process and resurrect the secular bull market, confirming Jan-Oct’22’s major decline as a long-term correction.
Per such a longer-term bullish count, it is imperative for the bull to continue to BEHAVE LIKE ONE by sustaining trendy, impulsive behavior higher. This is an important requirement “up here” at the extreme upper recesses of the past couple years’ range and arguable major resistance candidate.
The daily log active-continuation chart above shows today’s role to Mar24 as the prompt futures contract that accounts for much of today’s gains. However, the underlying cash index has also taken out the late-Jul high, reaffirming the broader uptrend.
This daily chart also shows the developing POTENTIAL for a bearish divergence in momentum, a divergence that will be considered CONFIRMED to the point of non-bullish action like long-covers on a failure below 30-Nov’s 4544 smaller-degree corrective low. This 4544 level remains intact as our short-term but key bull risk parameter.
Drilling down, the 240-min chart details this 4544 smaller-degree corrective low and also former resistance-turned-support in the 4608-to-4581-area that would be expected to hold as new near-term support per any broader bullish count.
In sum, a bullish policy and exposure remain advised with a failure below 4544 required to defer or threaten tis call enough to warrant neutralizing bullish exposure by both short- and longer-term traders. In lieu of such weakness, further and possibly accelerated gains, perhaps to new all-time highs, should not surprise.